Predicting the aging process of residential buildings carried out using traditional technologies is necessary when planning refurbishment works in these buildings. The article presents a picture of the changes in the technical condition of a not refurbished building constructed in traditional technology, in the form of a function describing the aging process according to the PRRD (Prediction of Reliability according to Rayleigh Distribution) model developed by the author. The results of analyses of the relationships between the function of the intensity of damage and the function of unreliability, as well as the function of changes in the performance characteristics of a building which had not undergone refurbishment during the entire course of its use are presented. Three levels of damage intensity during subsequent years of using the building were determined: safe, critical and unacceptable intensity.