Accordingly to recommendations set out by standards, degradation curves which will serve as a tool facilitating decision-making regarding renovation works ought to be developed. The article presents the proposal of a model for predicting the aging of a residential building. The proposed PRRD (Prediction of Reliability According to Rayleigh Distribution) model determines the performance characteristics of a building over the full period of its use. PRRD accounts for the life spans of individual building components. Additionally introduced in the model were supplements accounting for the intensity of changes in the building and its surroundings. The developed method of the non-linear degradation process of a building accounts for the role and weights of individual building components as well as the intensity of significant factors influencing the aging process. The presented methodology of the description of changes in the performance characteristics over the course of using a building will be a diagnostic process of predicting the technical state of a building. The proposed predictions can serve as the basis for making the right strategic decisions when planning renovation works in residential buildings.