Forecasting the course of construction project management in conditions of uncertainty
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Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering, 27 Wybrzeze Wyspianskiego st., 50-370 Wrocław, Poland
Submission date: 2022-12-03
Final revision date: 2023-01-25
Acceptance date: 2023-02-14
Publication date: 2023-09-18
Archives of Civil Engineering 2023;3(3)
The methodology and research results presented in the article indicate the practical possibility of conducting optimization of construction project management course. The goal of the achievement leads to the rationalization of the management of investment tasks, in which there are a series of uncertain parameterized events. The goal was achieved through many years of the author’s own research, which was personally carried out on several hundred construction projects according to original methodology for assessing and forecasting the characteristic parameters of construction investments (cost and time) in conditions of uncertainty: from determinism, through probability and randomness, to fuzziness. The presented and documented achievement stands for accomplishment in project management of construction projects, where decision-making with an increasing degree of uncertainty takes place and requires the course of investment tasks that will be implemented in the future to be forecasted. In the conducted research and conclusions it was proven that construction processes should be considered as phenomena with random events and various degrees of uncertainty, to which methodology with developed modelling parameters should be used.
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